Russia sez: Choose: us or them.

[muskokaandtahoe]

Word seems to be the Russian have told the west to choose: Take Russia, as is, as a partner. Or Georgia. Not both.

I dunno if this is fact or rumor.

At any rate, this serves as a useful example to show the difference between a Neocon and a Realist. The Realist will choose Russia as they're big, have lots of oil and gas, have nukes on ICBM's, and have been somewhat helpful WRT North Korea. The Realist distains any form of morality in foreign policy.

The Neocon will choose Georgia. They are a democracy and the victim of aggression. The Neocon includes morality in foreign policy and will, on occasion, put some serious weight behind it.

All that said, what makes this particular issue straightforward for the US is this: Russian policy remains the same as it has been for a very, very long time: They are an Imperialist state. US policy is, and has been since 1918, in complete opposition to Imperialism; we advocated in 1918 and after WWII built an international order based on self detrmination, national interaction based on legal principles, and free and fair trade. Afterall, the conflict between the Imperialist states is the entire history of 20th century.

IOW to choose Russia tells the world we are willing to turn away from everything the US fought for and built as victors in the 20th century. It tells China they don't have to play nice as they grow. It tells Russia go for broke. Ditto for all sorts of wanna-be big men tin pot dictators.

IMO, that should not be allowed to happen.

The question will be how hard a line will the US take. There is probably not a lot we can do to save Georgia from being taken whole into Russia. My guess is this is the beginning of a chilly war. One that can turn cold rather quickly. I do not expect it to become a hot war.

FWIW, I'm also of the opinion that it raises the stakes considerable WRT Iran and the bomb. If the US snubs Russia, they can then freely play buddy-buddy with the Iranian Mullahs (another Imperialist State).

Anybody still think Obama is ready for prime time?

[moose49]

Anybody still think Obama is ready for prime time?

NO!

[jtr1962]

I said it in another thread but it bears repeating here. The best course for the US is develop nuclear and alternative energies to the point that crude oil is next to worthless, and then let our allies use the patents for those technologies for free. Russia and Iran can only do what they do if they can sell their energy reserves for huge sums of money. Making their reserves of oil and natural gas nearly worthless will stop them cold in their tracks. It would end the leverage they have over an EU currently dependent upon their natural gas. And it would also benefit us in the Middle East as theocracies such as Saudi Arabia would have to modernize their ways and encourage tourism to have any hope of surviving economically.

I personally feel this is a game Russia is going to lose. They can't afford a long war with their neighbors even assuming their energy reserves continue fetching high prices. Moreover, it isn't 1950 or 1980. They have far fewer potential friends in today's world. Iran maybe, perhaps a few tinpot African or South American countries. Cuba will probably change radically once Fidel passes on. Even now I think they would be lukewarm to Russia. Russia may well find itself isolated should it continue pursuing the present course. Besides, I don't think the citizens in either Russia or the US are in the mood for Cold War round 2. There might be difficulty getting the money and/or soldiers for an extended conflict.

And BTW, exactly what made them suddenly decide to go invade Georgia? This is about as stupid a thing as anyone can imagine. All they need do is look at the difficulty the US has had trying to control Iraq even some 5 years after we took Saddam out of power. And they think they'll be able to start reassembling the former USSR? They'll probably run out of soldiers before they're even finished with Georgia.

[pmcn]

When Russia decides to put asside the tendancy to feel second class citizens to other Europeans, then it will be time to accept them. They are too wrapped up in themselves to bridge this gap as of yet while we are too wrapped up in ourselves to meet them half way (its our brand of democracy or nothing). Russia still has not been able to shake off the pesant class mentality and move on for some reason. That is what makes them so bipolar. A modern fuedal society. They are a great people that have an inferiority complex hanging over them. Stop electing dictators and move on.

Paul

[rdamurphy]

Good point, Paul! It hasn't been a very good century for the Russians, has it?

Robert

[captain82]

I hope this isn't another excuse for the US to get into something that doen't concern us.

[pmcn]

Russia reabsorbing former Soviet territorties does concern us. Should we let them reabsorb Poland etc.?

Paul

[mjs2101]

And BTW, exactly what made them suddenly decide to go invade Georgia?

Depends on how you look at it. Basically, Georgia launched an assault to reclaim South Ossetia last Thursday evening, in which Russia responded by "protecting" South Ossetia from Georgian aggression by entering into South Ossetia and finally Georgia. Some have said that the Georgian president used the opening of the Olympics hoping that Russia wouldn't respond as it did. Also, it can be said that Russia "egged" Georgia into this course of action.

One thing is for certain, Europe is not going to do too much depending on how far Russia goes, as Russia is playing the Kosovo card very well, so if anything harsh is to transpire, it will be up to the US. Also one has to remember where Europe gets 40% of its energy resources from.

As people say; "history repeats itself". The US has an opportunity to keep the rise of communism back in 1917, but chose to keep to itself. When the USSR finally fell at the end of last century, the US could have taken a more proactive approach towards Russia once again, but we chose to sit on the sidelines again.

It will be interesting to see how things play out. Makes one wonder how this could possibly affect China's aspirations for Taiwan depending on how it goes.

Mykel

[Dan1]

Your definitions of realism and neoconservatism in foreign policy seem a little off. Morality has little to do with foreign policy of any particular kind realist or otherwise. Certainly the US support for some of the Central Asian regimes has nothing to do with democracy.

For example you state that the US has been supporting self determination so. Strictly speaking the South Ossetians, Abkahzi should be entitled to self determination from Georgia if they so wish? Afterall, the recognition of Kosovo from Serbia (Serbia like Georgia a democracy) set the precedent.

You forget that the Baku Pipeline runs through Georgia and is the only exit for oil out of Central Asia that does not flow through Russia. So there is a considerable economic imperative in ensuring that the Georgian regime does not fall. Similarly for the Russians there is an economic incentive to seeing Georgia come back under its sphere of influence.



South Ossetia is one of a number of 'lukewarm' unresolved border conflicts that hang over the region and which have never been dealt with - Kaliningrad, Transnistria, and so on.

Paul - what exactly is a 'pesant (sic) class mentality'?

[Dan1]

Depends on how you look at it. Basically, Georgia launched an assault to reclaim South Ossetia last Thursday evening, in which Russia responded by "protecting" South Ossetia from Georgian aggression by entering into South Ossetia and finally Georgia. Some have said that the Georgian president used the opening of the Olympics hoping that Russia wouldn't respond as it did. Also, it can be said that Russia "egged" Georgia into this course of action.

One thing is for certain, Europe is not going to do too much depending on how far Russia goes, as Russia is playing the Kosovo card very well, so if anything harsh is to transpire, it will be up to the US. Also one has to remember where Europe gets 40% of its energy resources from.

As people say; "history repeats itself". The US has an opportunity to keep the rise of communism back in 1917, but chose to keep to itself. When the USSR finally fell at the end of last century, the US could have taken a more proactive approach towards Russia once again, but we chose to sit on the sidelines again.

It will be interesting to see how things play out. Makes one wonder how this could possibly affect China's aspirations for Taiwan depending on how it goes.

Mykel

To add to Mykel's post about the roots of the conflict.

The Russians after 1992 granted the South Ossetians citizenship. While North Ossetia is a Russian Autonomous region (similar to a US State) and is part of Russia, South Ossetia was part of post Soviet Georgia. The Russians would claim that they are merely protecting its citizens. The Georgians claim that they are seeking to regain control of their own territory.

There was a conflict in the early 1990's of which the current conflict is connected. There was a previous outbreak of fighting in 2004, 2006 and last year.

[pmcn]

Paul - what exactly is a 'pesant (sic) class mentality'?

The reliance of the population upon the elite to direct policy. In short, accept what comes down the pike and deal with it instead of thinking for ones self and sending something uP the line to be delt with, or simply ignoring the laws (black market).

You need to understand that Americans in particular are individualist in though and deed. Most of the older European nations (especially eastern ones) are not.

Paul

[Dan1]

Without wishing to be rude that sounds to me like a lazy cliche.

[pmcn]

Study the history of Russia. You have an Elite class, a small middle/merchantile class and a larger peasent class. Their culture has not reached the point where the common person can direct policy. If nurtured, it could happed very soon. If repressed, no gains. Thus the collapse of the Soviet Union. Certain groups were ready to move on while others were not.

Paul

[Dan1]

I have studied the history of Russia thanks.

Your arguments are very simplistic and based upon what on a very superficial reading of Russian history. Your concept of class is straight out of the 1940's and what on earth do you mean by 'Russian culture'?

[rdamurphy]

Dan, I'm not sure where you're from, but most Americans make assumptions like that quite often. For instance, we heard ad infinitem, ad nauseum, that Iraqi's weren't capable of democracy or of living in a free society. Both things could be considered a type of "soft bigotry."

I had an interesting conversation with a Russian man, once, he was my age, and we mutually discovered that we had served in the military at the same time - on opposite sides of the Iron Curtain during the Cold War. It was a fascinating conversation, especially since he had lived in the US for a number of years, and discovered everything he "knew" about us was wrong. He also mentioned that he was glad we never went to war, since the Red Army would have never survived it...

Robert